Home‎ > ‎Climate Denial‎ > ‎

Cooling began in 1998

Earth is no longer warming, cooling began in 1998

Just as the Galileo site selects the molehills of data it thinks are dubious and ignores the mountains it doesn't want you to know about, so for the first few years of the 21st century the deniers looked at the global temperature in 1998, noticed that the following few years were cooler, and were confidently declaring global warming was not only over, but that the climate was simply into a cooling phase of a natural cycle. No data anywhere had ever indicated a cycle of cooling and warming over a 60-year period, but no matter, suddenly they discovered one. It takes a graph to show the falsehood they were presenting. First they avoid global temperature and select a subset, temperatures north of 64°N, just to help the idea along. Then they fit a curve - curve a) below - but not very cleverly. A better fit would be as in b). But b) is no good to them, it implies a generally upward trend.



Arctic annual temperature: a) interpreted as a cycle by climate deniers  and b) interpreted as a rising cycle by me (on no evidence whatsoever!).

At the same time the climate denialists were arguing that climate science was useless because it predicted warming temperatures and they were not happening. Using just the previous few years as a guide rather than the full 90 years available to them, they predicted falling temperatures. It is useful to compare that with the temperature projections issued by climate scientists in 2000 and the actual global temperatures since. Who got it right? The scientists or the skeptics?



Global temperature rise since 1980 compared to the climate scientists prediction made in 2000. The green line is the scientists most likely trend, the grey zone covers the range of less probable trajectories. The prediction of the climate skeptics, as indicated in Ian Plimer's 2009 book "Heaven and Earth", is shown in orange.

Overall, this is just bad science and another example of cherry-picking. Climate trends take decades to become clear, not a few years.

Comments