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The conjuring trick

The conjuring trick

Skeptics such as the Berkeley Group who actually test their hypotheses are the exception. Most  climate deniers, those self-styled skeptics, just use a variety of arguing methods to persuade you of their untruths. One technique is the same as conjurors use; distract your attention so you don't notice their sleight of hand. 

Consider this question from one of Ian Plimer's books:  Why could the Northwest Passage be navigated in the 1930s and 1940s in wooden boats, yet it could not be navigated in the late 20th century warming? 

Little thought is needed to conclude, well, in that case the so-called recent warming is insignificant. By so framing the question, Plimer gets you to tell yourself there is no warming, he doesn't need to say so. The trick is that the premise of the question is false. The northwest passage was first successfully navigated in a single summer in 1944 by one wooden vessel (double-hulled, eucalyptus hardwood outer hull, soft-wood inner hull) sailed by an experienced Arctic explorer - hardly "navigated in wooden boats". 

As for "could not be navigated in the late 20th century", an open boat, a whaler, made the trip in 1981, the first cruise ship in 1984, more than one hundred vessels by the end of the century, and the entire route was ice-free in summer well before Plimer's book was published (2011).

The question has a false premise.

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